The only thing working against the University of South Dakota women's chances of continuing into the NCAA tournament is that it's never happened before.
If the Summit League, as we know it this century, had a history of sending at-large candidates to the Big Dance, it would be a done deal. The Coyotes would be watching their televisions calmly on Monday night, curious only to the extent that they needed to know who they would be playing and where they would be playing them.
As difficult as it was to deal with an 83-71 loss to SDSU at the PREMIER Center, the numbers still flatter the Coyotes' chances to receive good news and give the Summit its first at-large bid for women's basketball. Following Tuesday afternoon's final, USD's RPI sat at 38. Under almost any conditions, be it the men's or women's tournament, that would normally translate to good news on Monday.
Of course, Monday was along ways off for the Coyotes' lone senior
Allison Arens. In front of 7,871 emotional fans, she'd scored 26 points and grabbed seven rebounds in the championship final.
"I haven't looked that far yet," Arens answered when asked about the Coyotes' chances of making the NCAA tournament. "I think all of our hearts and souls were into this game today. Now we'll get back in the gym."
On paper, those removed from the emotions of the USD-SDSU rivalry can keep looking ahead. Fueling optimism that this is going to work out favorably comes from ESPN bracket expert Charlie Creme, one of several on a national scale who began recognizing USD as a potential NCAA team early in the season. In his most recent bracket, he has the Coyotes earning a No. 7 seed and playing No. 10 seed Kansas State in an opening round game at Stanford.
"All hail these five mid-majors: Gonzaga, Drake, South Dakota State, South Dakota and Central Michigan are making the field," Creme wrote. "They already have put together NCAA tournament-worthy seasons."
This was written in February and the Coyotes have done very little since then to warrant significant down-grading.
"That also means these are the teams for which those on the bubble need to root for during conference tournament play," Creme added. "For instance, if South Dakota or South Dakota State doesn't win the Summit League tournament, then three teams from that conference will be going to the NCAA tournament and another at-large spot is gone, because both the Coyotes and Jackrabbits have a spot should they not get the automatic bid."
It was an opinion, to use a phrase often used on the basketball court, that was delivered with authority.
"The positive thing is that I really do believe this group of young ladies will have a chance to play again in the NCAA tournament," Plitzuweit said in her opening statement. "It's one of their goals and something that I'm really happy for – I love these young ladies. This was a special opportunity and we didn't get it this way but I really think we're going to have the opportunity to do it another way."
On Feb. 11, the Coyotes entered the Associated Press Top 25 for the first time in their Division I history. They had been ranked in the Top 25 in the USA Today poll for a month straight and are at No. 25 again this week.
Bolstering the Coyotes' case have been top-25 wins over Iowa State and at Missouri. Perennial mid-major powerhouse Green Bay was also one of USD's victims.
"With the quality of the non-conference schedule we played with wins over Missouri and Iowa State and Green Bay – all teams that are outstanding basketball teams with spots in the top 25 – I do believe our team will qualify," Plitzuweit said. "And then the consistency of play throughout. Honestly, to play the schedule we had, I do believe our young ladies deserve an opportunity to continue playing."
All signs point to the Coyotes hearing their name called on Monday. It would be a big step for both USD and the league they play in.
